Iran’s leaders think they have Trump cornered, but their strategy carries great risks

The is, by some accounts, named for a deity destined to emerge victorious after a 9,000-year standoff with an adversary.

Iran’s leaders feel is at hand and won’t require the same epic patience.

They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy 鈥� and that time is on their side.

They know about the of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and . They know their Houthi allies in Yemen and disrupt another major trade route.

By that logic, U.S. President has no choice .

But Iran’s strategy carries risks.

Trump points to strikes that have decimated Iran’s top leadership, navy and air force. He alternates between threatening escalation and saying talks are going well. Iran’s own economy , in part because of a U.S. blockade. Iranians rose up in mass protests and could do so again.

And Iran’s leaders need only look to how Trump’s to the Middle East has bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn out as expected.

An evolving deal could give Iran a major win

Iran says it is with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the countries. But on Saturday, until the U.S. 鈥渃orrects its behavior,鈥� saying it must permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must 鈥渃ompletely compensate鈥� Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and 鈥渦nconditionally鈥� release frozen assets.

There was no White House comment.

A deal with Oman would formalize Tehran’s control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas.

Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President , said Iran’s effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee its security.

鈥淢ore than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,鈥� he said by phone from Tehran.

Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish in the war.

It would also deal a blow to on freedom of navigation and that much of the world would find disturbing 鈥� that nations can shut down trade choke points at will.

China, which buys oil from Iran and has influence over it, said that 鈥渘ormal and safe passage鈥� through the strait should be restored.

Iran feels time is on its side

To borrow a phrase from Trump’s , Iran believes it holds the cards.

鈥淭hey started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends,” Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, posted on social media. 鈥淚ran is going after the enemy鈥檚 defeat 鈥� not an agreement.鈥�

He said in July 鈥渃ompensated鈥� for a drop in oil prices. That contributed to the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June that had offered , including a U.S. waiver to sell oil internationally and the promise of broader sanctions relief.

Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to being an open waterway, and that it will keep attacking ships trying to transit without its permission. Iran’s joint military command has called it an 鈥渦nbreakable red line.鈥�

鈥淔or Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf,” said Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst.

That poses a major obstacle to ending the war, much less resolving the even more complex, long-standing dispute over Iran’s .

“The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran鈥檚 interests,鈥� said Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst. Control of the strait would give Iran leverage if the nuclear talks resume, he added.

It’s still a risky gamble

The economic fallout from the war but is particularly acute in Iran.

U.S. and Israeli strikes have . The U.S. blockade has choked off much of its oil exports. Iranians are grappling with . Trump has repeatedly on civilian infrastructure like water and electricity.

In December, a currency crisis sparked some of the biggest anti-government protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic Republic. Authorities responded with in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.

Many in Iran, including those close to its moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, fear it may go too far.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, wrote in a recent essay that Iran’s achievements in the war had opened 鈥渁n exceptional window for diplomacy.鈥� But he warned that if it doesn’t strike a deal soon, then 鈥渆conomic recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest or renewed aggression, especially after the U.S. elections, cannot be ruled out.鈥�

The war has already been marked by surprises.

After the first wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28 killed Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials, Trump suggested it would be over .

Instead, the conflict has emboldened Iran’s leaders and mobilized their supporters. Tehran is using the strait 鈥渢o show that it has not been defeated,” Ghahremanpour said. “It can increase its legitimacy at home.鈥�

But the strategy could also backfire. Iran’s resilience has limits and there are concerns that an economic crash could trigger unrest. 鈥淚ran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,” he said.

But Davari said that for now, Iran can withstand the pressure. “It鈥檚 unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions,” he said.

___

Associated Press reporter Hend Kortam in Cairo contributed.

___

Krauss has reported from across the Middle East for more than 20 years, including postings in Cairo, Baghdad and Jerusalem. Radjy is a Cairo-based journalist who has reported on Iran for over a decade.

麻豆官网